Note ·
The weekly close on agricultural futures
Rubber, grains, and other slow contracts punish people who treat every midweek bounce as a new trend. The weekly close is the first filter we teach.
Arisa Boonmee
Ranges that look like coils
Agricultural futures spend long stretches going nowhere. Students who arrived from SET50 charts often read those stretches as compression before a move. Sometimes they are. Often they are simply a market with no trend to mark.
We ask for a weekly close outside the range before anyone writes the word advance or decline on that page. Midweek spikes that die before Friday are weather in the room, not structure.
The roll is not a trend
A new contract month can gap on the chart when you flip the page. That gap is a calendar fact. It is not a break of trend until the new month’s own swings say so. In class we keep the expiring month and the next month on facing pages for two weeks around the roll so the eye does not lie.
What to bring if you hedge
If you buy or sell the physical crop, bring the hedge notes as well as the futures page. The chart lesson is still about trend. The sitting goes better when the instructor can see whether you are marking the contract you actually use.